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Poll: Increased Black, Hispanic Support Push Trump to Lead Over Biden

The Center Square Voters’ Voice poll
In this combination of photos, President Joe Biden speaks on Aug. 10, 2023, in Salt Lake City, left, and former President Donald Trump speaks on July 8, 2023, in Las Vegas. John Locher
In this combination of photos, President Joe Biden speaks on Aug. 10, 2023, in Salt Lake City, left, and former President Donald Trump speaks on July 8, 2023, in Las Vegas. John Locher

By: Casey Harper | The Center Square

Former President Donald Trump holds a lead over President Joe Biden heading into this presidential election year, the latest poll shows.

The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll, conducted Jan. 2-4, found that among likely voters, Trump holds 45% support compared to Biden’s 41% in a head-to-head faceoff, a lead that's outside of the poll's 2% margin for error with the Iowa Caucuses scheduled for Monday (Jan. 15).

The remaining 14% who responded they were “not sure” could swing the election in favor of either candidate.

The latest poll flips the script on the previous The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll conducted in October, when Biden held a 48% to 44% advantage over Trump. Other recent polls also show Trump with a significant lead over Biden in key swing states.

Trump’s lead is due in large part to his growing support among Hispanic and Black voters, which is higher than Republican presidential candidates have received in the past.

Trump has 10% support among Black voters compared to Biden’s 74%. While 10% is far lower than Biden’s support, it is actually much higher than Republican presidential candidates normally garner.

One portion of the survey allowed Republican voters to share why they prefer Trump over his primary competitors, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, over whom he holds a wide lead.

A Black Trump supporter wrote, “he is really a man of his words and doesn’t have a lot of lobbyists telling him what to do or say.”

Among Hispanics, Trump has 45% support compared to Biden’s 38% support.

One Hispanic Trump supporter wrote, “I love that he isn’t afraid to be who he is.”

Another Hispanic Trump supporter wrote, “the stuff he has been saying and doing really makes me believe he can make an impact on the world nowadays. I mean look at gas prices. They went up 300% ever since Joe Biden got here as President.”

Trump has 49% support among white voters, compared to Biden’s 35% support.

Trump also does better than Biden with male voters, beating Biden 50% to 34%, according to the survey. Biden, though, does better with female voters, beating Trump with 45% support compared to Trump’s 39%.

Trump performs better than Biden across every age demographic except seniors age 65 and older. For that group, Trump and Biden are tied with 42% support. Each age demographic has a large percentage responding they remained “not sure,” ranging between 15% and 20%.

Elevated inflation, a crisis at the southern border, and ongoing overseas conflicts have chipped away at Biden’s support. Millions of illegal immigrants have poured into the U.S. since Biden took office, leading even Democratic mayors to raise the alarm. The chaotic and deadly withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan marked a downward turning point for Biden’s approval numbers, from which he has not recovered. Concerns over the U.S.’ role in Ukraine and the potential for the Israel-Gaza war to escalate are also a factor.

Inflation has slowed since spiking during Biden’s first two years as president, but prices still remain nearly 20% higher than when he took office. Mortgage rates peaked over 8%, making it much more difficult for many Americans to afford to buy a home.

Citing some of those concerns, The Center Square Voter’s Voice poll also found that 67% of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction, a tough statistic to overcome for the incumbent president. The poll also found the majority of Americans disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy, which is consistently a top issue for voters of both parties.

The poll was conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights and surveyed 2,573 Americans from Jan. 2-4, roughly even number of Republicans and Democrats as well as 266 “true independents,” which are independents who indicated they do not lean toward either party. The poll has a margin of error of about 2%.

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